Novavax (NVAX.US) Price Target 2026/2027: 85% Upside – Rating and Stock Analysis

7,67
-0,39%
Price history for Novavax (NVAX.US) – stock price at 7.67 $, August 2026
Novavax stock price – price development 2026. Updated Aug 6, 2026.
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Novavax Price Target 2026: Analysts See 84% Upside

The average price target for Novavax is $14.11. This price target represents the analysts' view of the stock price over the next 12 months. The stock may be undervalued, because the price target is higher than the current price. The stock is 83,96% below the target, which can point to potential returns within the next 12 months if the analysts' view proves right. Also consider the stock's valuation ratios such as P/E, P/S and P/B, plus the technical analysis further down the page, for the full picture.

Is Novavax overvalued or undervalued?

Novavax is currently undervalued with a gap of 84% relative to the price target.


The current price is $7.67, which places Novavax in the undervalued category. The stock is considered undervalued when the price is below $12.70, and overvalued when the price exceeds $15.52.


The fair value range is defined as ±10% of the price target, because price targets are estimates rather than exact values. For Novavax, the fair value range lies between $12.70 and $15.52.


See the full price target analysis for Novavax →

Analyst Ratings for Novavax stock in 2026: Buy

9 analysts cover Novavax. The ratings are mixed, with 55.6% Buy, 11.1% Hold and 33.3% Sell. The average price target is $14.11, which gives an upside of 84% from the current price.

Consensus: Buy (3.67/5)
Strong Buy
5 (55.6%)
Hold
1 (11.1%)
Sell
2 (22.2%)
Strong Sell
1 (11.1%)
Strong Sell Sell Hold Buy Strong Buy
3.67 out of 5 based on 9 analysts

About Novavax – Bioteknologi

Novavax er et biotekfirma, der udvikler vacciner mod alvorlige infektionssygdomme. De tjener penge ved at forske i, udvikle og sælge disse vacciner. Novavax er især kendt for deres COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, som de har kørt igennem flere store forsøg. Blandt deres andre vigtige projekter finder man NanoFlu, en influenzavaccine, der er i fase 3, samt ResVax, som er målrettet RS-virus. Virksomheden har også et samarbejde med Takeda om udvikling og produktion af deres COVID-19 vaccine. Novavax blev grundlagt i 1987 og har hovedkvarter i Gaithersburg, Maryland. De driver kliniske forsøg i mange lande for at få deres produkter godkendt. Read more about the company

Key Figures for Novavax

$ 1,3B Market cap
$ 596M Revenue
Bioteknologi Industry
- P/E
2.11 P/S
33.20 P/B
USA Listed on exchange
Sundhed Sector

What kind of stock is Novavax?

Speculative stock

Novavax is classified as a speculative stock.

Score Overview for Novavax

💰 Value Score 16/100 (Very Low)
⭐ Quality Score 18/100 (Very Low)
🚀 Momentum Score 25/100 (Low)
📊 Total Score 19/100

⚠️ 7 red flags identified 4 critical

Our analysis has identified 7 potential risk factors in Novavax that investors should be aware of.

🚨 High debt: The debt-to-equity ratio is 1,000% – the company carries considerably more debt than equity, which raises the financial risk.
⚠️ Weak financial health: The Piotroski score is only 3/9 – the company shows signs of weakened profitability, liquidity or capital structure.
🚨 Weak balance sheet (elevated risk): Altman Z2 is -11.65 – the balance sheet is measurably weaker than average. This is a risk signal based on the numbers, not a bankruptcy prediction.
⚠️ Negative profit margin: The profit margin is -14.7% – the company is losing money on its operations.
🚨 Negative return on equity: ROE is -898.2% – the company is generating a negative return for shareholders.
🚨 High short interest: 26.8% of the shares are sold short – many professional investors are betting on price declines.
⚠️ Falling earnings: Quarterly earnings have fallen 38% year over year – the company's profitability is under pressure.

📈 Valuation

The P/S ratio is 2.1. The P/B ratio is 33.2. The PEG ratio is 1.32.

💵 Profitability & Growth

Return on assets (ROA) is 2.0%. The latest quarterly earnings grew -38.1% year over year — falling earnings.

🏦 Financial Health

The Piotroski score is 3 out of 9 — weak financial health, be careful. Altman Z2 is -11.65 (weak balance sheet — elevated risk). The debt-to-equity ratio (D/E) is 1,000.0% — high debt, which raises the risk.

🚀 Momentum & Short Interest

Short interest is 26.82% — very high, the market is skeptical.

Insider Trading in Novavax 2026: The Signal Is negative

In 2026, insiders at Novavax have made 20 transactions, all of which were sales. On a net basis, insiders took 8,050,355 $ out of the stock. Active insiders include Kelly James Patrick, O'Hara Elaine, Jacobs John C and others.

Short-Term Signal (3 months): No activity

There has been no insider trading in the last 3 months.

Long-Term Signal (all transactions): Negative

Insiders have exclusively sold shares in the recent period. This can suggest management sees limited opportunity.

Across the last 20 transactions: 0 purchases and 20 sales. A net 8,050,355 $ out of the stock.

Latest sale: Kelly James Patrick sold 12,223 shares at 10 $ each on 2026-03-07.

Who is selling: Kelly James Patrick, O'Hara Elaine, Jacobs John C, Draghia-Akli Ruxandra, Casey Mark J and others.

Latest Insider Trades in Novavax (2026)

The table shows the last 20 reported insider transactions in Novavax. Green rows are purchases, red rows are sales. The data is based on official filings.

Transaction date Name Type Number of shares Price per share ($) Total amount ($)
2026-03-07 Kelly James Patrick Sell 12,223 10 121,986
2026-03-03 O'Hara Elaine Sell 56,334 9 534,610
2026-03-03 Kelly James Patrick Sell 43,167 9 409,655
2026-03-03 Jacobs John C Sell 150,167 9 1,425,085
2026-03-03 Draghia-Akli Ruxandra Sell 26,667 9 253,070
2026-03-03 Casey Mark J Sell 37,500 9 355,875
2026-03-01 O'Hara Elaine Sell 19,600 10 198,744
2026-03-01 Kelly James Patrick Sell 58,666 10 594,873
2026-03-01 Jacobs John C Sell 83,333 10 844,997
2026-03-01 Casey Mark J Sell 4,000 10 40,560

Who is buying and selling Novavax shares in 2026?

The following insiders have sold shares: Kelly James Patrick, O'Hara Elaine, Jacobs John C, Draghia-Akli Ruxandra, Casey Mark J and others. In total, 8,050,355 $ was sold across 20 transactions. Insider trades are legal transactions in which executives and board members buy or sell shares of their own company. These transactions are reported to the SEC and are publicly available.

Novavax Short Selling 2026: 26.8% Sold Short

Extremely shorted: 26.8% of the free float
Short % of free float
26.8%
Assessment
Extremely shorted
Short squeeze risk
Very High
Data source
SEC
Updated daily
The stock has an extremely high share of short selling. More than 20% of the freely traded shares are sold short, which is unusual and can point to great skepticism among institutional investors. The risk of a short squeeze on positive news is considerable.

What does this mean for you as an investor?
A short interest of 26.8% means that 26.8% of the freely traded shares in Novavax have been borrowed and sold by investors betting on falling prices. On positive surprises (e.g. a strong earnings report), short sellers can be forced to buy back shares quickly to close their positions, which can cause a short squeeze with sharp price gains in a short time.

The next potential catalyst is the earnings report on 8/6/2026. With a short interest of 26.8%, the report can trigger considerable volatility.

Data is updated daily based on official filings with the SEC.
Short Interest Scale
0% 2% 5% 10% 20%+
Low Moderate High Very High Extreme
26.8%

Novavax Earnings – ⚡ Reporting TODAY 8/6/2026

The next earnings date for Novavax is not yet available. Check the company's investor calendar for more information.



Technical Analysis of Novavax 2026 – Signal: Strong Sell

Overall Technical Signal: Strong Sell

Based on trend analysis (SMA50/SMA200) and MACD trend (positive/negative on a daily + weekly basis). Updated August 6, 2026.

Technical analysis of Novavax (NVAX.US) – RSI 40, MACD negative (bearish), daily candlestick chart August 2026
Novavax technical analysis – candlestick chart with RSI and MACD. Updated Aug 6, 2026.

Trend Analysis of Novavax, Inc

Novavax, Inc is in a short-term downtrend. The price of $7.70 is 3.6% below the 20-day average ($7.99). Medium term, the picture is negative: the price is 13.4% below the 50-day average ($8.89). Long term, the stock is 8.9% below the 200-day average ($8.45), which signals a long-term downtrend.

Golden Cross: The 50-day average (8.89) is above the 200-day average (8.45), which is a classic bullish signal for Novavax, Inc.

Is Novavax, Inc overbought or oversold?

Novavax, Inc has an RSI of 40.3. The stock sits in the lower part of the neutral zone, which points to weak momentum without being oversold. In the current downtrend, be careful about reading this as a buying opportunity.

MACD Analysis for Novavax, Inc

Daily MACD: MACD is negative (-0.411), which means the short-term trend is bearish (the 12-day EMA is below the 26-day EMA). MACD is above the signal line (-0.421) by 0.010, which suggests the negative momentum is fading – a potential trend reversal could be ahead.

Weekly MACD: MACD5 is negative (-0.094), which indicates a broader bearish long-term trend. MACD5 is below the signal line (0.169) by 0.263, which confirms continued negative long-term momentum.

Overall MACD assessment: Both the daily and weekly trend are bearish (MACD negative). However, momentum shows signs of improving on a daily basis – a potential trend reversal could be ahead, but it is not confirmed yet.

Risk Profile for Novavax, Inc

Novavax, Inc has an annual standard deviation of 67.3%, which classifies the stock as high risk. Sizeable price swings are normal, and the stock requires a higher risk tolerance.

Overall Technical Conclusion for Novavax, Inc

Trend: Negative. The price trades below SMA50 and SMA200.

MACD trend (zero line): Daily bearish (-0.411). Weekly bearish (-0.094).

MACD momentum (signal): Daily rising. Weekly falling.

RSI: 40.3 – neutral.

Technical signal: Strong Sell

The price is in a downtrend (below SMA50/SMA200) and MACD is negative on both a daily and weekly basis. Avoid buying and consider closing existing positions.

Frequently Asked Questions About Novavax stock in 2026

Should you buy Novavax stock now?
No, the technical signal for Novavax is currently SELL. Novavax trades at $7.67 as of 8/6/2026. The overall technical signal is: Strong Sell. The technical analysis shows the following: MACD is negative (bearish trend) at -0.411 with rising momentum (signal: -0.421); RSI is at 40.3 (neutral zone); the stock is in a short-term downtrend (price below the 20-day average); the analyst price target of $14.11 points to 84.0% upside. The stock is in a broader downtrend (below SMA50/SMA200). Buying in a downtrend is generally not recommended. This is a technical observation based on current data, not investment advice.
What is the price target for Novavax stock?
The average analyst price target for Novavax is $14.11. The current price is $7.67, which gives an upside of 84.0%. Based on this, the stock is considered undervalued. The fair value range (±10% of the price target) is between $12.70 and $15.52.
Is Novavax a dividend stock?
No, Novavax does not currently pay a dividend to shareholders. The company reinvests its profits in growth instead of paying dividends.
What is the risk of Novavax stock?
Novavax is rated as a stock with high risk. the annual standard deviation is 67.3%, which classifies the stock as high risk.
Is Novavax overvalued?
No, Novavax is considered undervalued based on the analyst price target (84.0% upside). Novavax has the following valuation ratios: a P/S ratio of 2.1, a P/B ratio of 33.2. The analyst price target suggests that the stock is undervalued by 84.0%.
Is Novavax overbought?
No, Novavax is not overbought. RSI is at 40.3 (neutral zone). The technical indicators show: RSI is at 40.3 (neutral zone between 30-70), which signals neither overbought nor oversold. In addition, the price is 4.0% below the 20-day average (short-term downtrend). In addition, MACD is negative, but momentum is rising (possible trend reversal).
When is the next Novavax earnings report?
Novavax reports earnings TODAY, August 6, 2026! The stock currently trades at $7.67. Watch how the price reacts after the release.
Is Novavax shorted?
Yes, Novavax is shorted with 26.8% of the free float sold short. This is an extremely high level of short selling, which points to great skepticism among institutional investors. The risk of a short squeeze on positive news or earnings is very high. Data is updated daily based on official filings with the SEC.
Are insiders buying Novavax stock?
No, insiders are not buying Novavax shares – they are net sellers. Across the last 20 reported transactions, the split is 0 purchases and 20 sales, with a net 8,050,355 $ sold. Active sellers include Kelly James Patrick, O'Hara Elaine, Jacobs John C and others. Insider selling can have several explanations (e.g. planned 10b5-1 sales, portfolio diversification or taxes), but sustained selling by several insiders is worth watching closely.
Is Novavax a good stock?
Based on our total score, Novavax is rated as a poor stock with a total score of 20 out of 100. The stock scores below average on value, quality and momentum – it sits at the lower end of the market. The score is made up of Value: 16/100, Quality: 18/100, Momentum: 25/100. In addition: analysts see 84.0% upside to the price target; technical signal: Strong Sell. Whether Novavax is a good investment depends on your time horizon, risk profile and portfolio. This is a data-driven observation, not investment advice.
What is the outlook for Novavax stock?
The outlook for Novavax based on current data: the average analyst price target is $14.11 (+84.0%); the stock is in a downtrend (below SMA50 and SMA200); the next earnings report is due on 8/6/2026, which can move the price. Keep in mind that stock prices are affected by many factors, including earnings reports, the economy and market sentiment. Past returns are no guarantee of future returns.
Why is Novavax stock falling?
Novavax is falling right now. The technical indicators show: the price is 4.0% below the 20-day average; short interest is 26.8% (high – many are betting on a decline); insiders have mostly been selling the stock recently. For the latest context, see our technical analysis, insider section and news overview above.
How high can Novavax go?
The average analyst price target for Novavax is $14.11, which corresponds to a potential gain of 84.0% from the current price of $7.67. Keep in mind that price targets are estimates, not guarantees. Actual price moves depend on earnings, market conditions and unexpected events.
How low can Novavax fall?
We lack enough history to give a specific floor for Novavax. Remember: past price swings are no guarantee for the future — a stock can fall further than the last 52 weeks suggest, especially on profit warnings, sector crises or a market crash. Use stop-loss orders and spread your portfolio to limit losses in single stocks.
What does Novavax do?
Novavax er et biotekfirma, der udvikler vacciner mod alvorlige infektionssygdomme. De tjener penge ved at forske i, udvikle og sælge disse vacciner. Novavax er især kendt for deres COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, som de har kørt igennem flere store forsøg. Blandt deres andre v... The company belongs to the Sundhed sector, more specifically the Bioteknologi industry, is headquartered in USA, and is traded on the USA Stocks. See the key figures, earnings history and price development above to evaluate Novavax as an investment.
Did Novavax raise or lower its guidance?
Over the last 60 days we have not registered a guidance raise or cut from Novavax. The company can still adjust its guidance at quarterly reports or between reports — see the earnings history and the news overview above.
Is Novavax making money or losing money?
No, Novavax is currently not making money — the company is losing money with a negative profit margin of -14.7%, a noticeable loss. That means the business loses money on every dollar of revenue. For growth stocks investing in expansion this is normal — but it raises the risk if the company does not reach break-even before its capital runs out.
Can Novavax go bankrupt?
The bankruptcy risk of Novavax is rated as elevated. Altman Z2 (a model for assessing financial distress) is -11.65 — that places the company in the weak zone. This is a probability based on the numbers, not a verdict — bankruptcy is not imminent. But the balance sheet is measurably weaker than average, so watch the debt, liquidity and possible capital raises. The Piotroski score (financial health 0-9, higher is better) is 3 — which is weak. Debt relative to equity is 1,000% (high). Remember: models like Altman Z2 are statistical — unexpected shocks (fraud, a sector collapse, lawsuits) can always happen. Spread your portfolio.
Does Novavax have a lot of debt?
Yes, Novavax has elevated debt relative to equity. The debt-to-equity ratio (D/E — interest-bearing debt to equity) is 1,000%. For the sundhed sector, anything above 150% counts as elevated — that raises the financial risk, especially if interest rates rise or earnings fall. Note: D/E levels are highly sector-specific — a bank at 300% debt is normal, a tech stock at 300% is extremely leveraged. Always compare with similar companies in the same sector. Can Novavax service its debt? Could struggle to service its debt — the interest coverage ratio (how many times earnings can cover interest payments) is -0.7x, and net debt equals 1.1 years of earnings (EBITDA).