Alcoa (AA.US) Price Target 2026/2027: 30% Upside – Rating and Stock Analysis

48,10
0,86%
Price history for Alcoa (AA.US) – stock price at 48.10 $, August 2026
Alcoa stock price – price development 2026. Updated Aug 6, 2026.
Share this analysis:

Alcoa Price Target 2026: Analysts See 31% Upside

The average price target for Alcoa is $62.98. This price target represents the analysts' view of the stock price over the next 12 months. The stock may be undervalued, because the price target is higher than the current price. The stock is 30,94% below the target, which can point to potential returns within the next 12 months if the analysts' view proves right. Also consider the stock's valuation ratios such as P/E, P/S and P/B, plus the technical analysis further down the page, for the full picture.

Is Alcoa overvalued or undervalued?

Alcoa is currently undervalued with a gap of 30.9% relative to the price target.


The current price is $48.10, which places Alcoa in the undervalued category. The stock is considered undervalued when the price is below $56.68, and overvalued when the price exceeds $69.28.


The fair value range is defined as ±10% of the price target, because price targets are estimates rather than exact values. For Alcoa, the fair value range lies between $56.68 and $69.28.


See the full price target analysis for Alcoa →

Analyst Ratings for Alcoa stock in 2026: Buy

14 analysts cover Alcoa. The majority is positive, with 64.3% recommending Buy, while 28.6% recommend Hold. The average price target is $62.98, which gives an upside of 30.9% from the current price.

Consensus: Buy (4.07/5)
Strong Buy
7 (50%)
Buy
2 (14.3%)
Hold
4 (28.6%)
Sell
1 (7.1%)
Strong Sell Sell Hold Buy Strong Buy
4.07 out of 5 based on 14 analysts

About Alcoa – Aluminium

Alcoa Corporation laver basalt set alt inden for aluminium. De tjener penge på at udvinde bauxit, som de så forarbejder til aluminiumoxid – det, man kalder alumina. Den sidste del af forretningen er at smelte og støbe aluminium, som de sælger som primær aluminium og legeringsingots. Alcoa blev grundlagt helt tilbage i 1888 og har hovedkontor i Pittsburgh. De driver miner og fabrikker i lande som USA, Australien, Island og Brasilien. De sælger deres aluminium til industrier, der laver transportmidler, byggerier og emballage. Alcoa ejer og driver også egne vandkraftværker, hvilket sikrer dem strøm til den energiintensive produktion. Read more about the company

Key Figures for Alcoa

$ 12,4B Market cap
$ 13,6B Revenue
Aluminium Industry
9.74 P/E
0.91 P/S
1.62 P/B
USA Listed on exchange
alcoa.com Website

What kind of stock is Alcoa?

Growth stock Value stock Quality stock

Alcoa is classified as a growth stock and value stock and quality stock. This means the stock combines several attractive traits, strong financial health (Piotroski 8/9).

Score Overview for Alcoa

💰 Value Score 92/100 (Very High)
⭐ Quality Score 78/100 (High)
🚀 Momentum Score 15/100 (Very Low)
📊 Total Score 61/100

⚠️ 1 red flag identified

Our analysis has identified 1 potential risk factor in Alcoa that investors should be aware of.

⚠️ High debt: The debt-to-equity ratio is 173% – the company carries considerably more debt than equity, which raises the financial risk.

📈 Valuation

Alcoa trades at a P/E ratio of 9.7, which is below the market average and can point to an attractive price. The forward P/E is 8.8 (10% lower), which suggests the market expects rising earnings. The P/S ratio is 0.9 (low — potentially undervalued relative to revenue). The P/B ratio is 1.6. The PEG ratio is 8.36 — above 2.0 suggests the stock is expensive relative to its growth rate.

💵 Profitability & Growth

Alcoa has a profit margin of 9.4% (moderate) and an operating margin of 18.4%. Return on equity (ROE) is 18.2% — solid return on equity. Return on assets (ROA) is 6.5%. The latest quarterly earnings grew 146.8% year over year — strong growth.

🏦 Financial Health

The Piotroski score is 8 out of 9 — excellent financial health. Altman Z2 is 2.25 (middle zone — moderate). The debt-to-equity ratio (D/E) is 172.7% — moderate debt.

🚀 Momentum & Short Interest

Short interest is 3.41%.

Alcoa Dividend 2026: 0.9% Dividend Yield

Dividend Key Figures for Alcoa in 2026

Dividend yield
0.89%
Dividend per share
0.10 USD
Payout ratio
8.4%
Low
Dividend growth (4 years)
+200.0%
Avg. annual dividend (3 years)
0.37 USD

When does Alcoa pay a dividend in 2026?

Latest ex-dividend date (traded without the dividend)
May 19, 2026
Next dividend payment
August 27, 2026
Latest payment date
June 5, 2026

How much does Alcoa pay in dividends?

Alcoa pays dividends to its shareholders. The most recently paid dividend was 0.10 USD per share, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 0.89%. Over the last 4 years, the annual dividend has grown by 200.0%, which shows positive dividend growth.

The payout ratio is 8.4%, which is low. This suggests the company prioritizes reinvesting in growth over dividend payments. There is good room to raise the dividend in the future.

Historical Dividend Payments for Alcoa

We have registered dividend payments for Alcoa since 2021-10-28. In that period the stock has paid a dividend 24 times, most recently on 2026-05-19. This stock qualifies as a stable dividend stock, because it has paid a dividend at least once a year for the last 5 years. That makes it attractive to investors looking for steady, regular dividend payments.

Ex-datePayment dateAmountCurrencyPeriod
2026-05-192026-06-050.10USDUnknown period
2026-05-192026-06-050.10USDUnknown period
2026-05-192026-06-050.10USDUnknown period
2026-05-192026-06-050.10USDUnknown period
2026-05-192026-06-050.10USDUnknown period
2026-05-192026-06-050.10USDUnknown period
2026-05-192026-06-050.10USDUnknown period
2026-03-102026-03-260.10USDUnknown period
2025-11-042025-11-210.10USDUnknown period
2025-08-122025-08-280.10USDUnknown period
2025-03-042025-03-200.10USDUnknown period
2024-10-292024-11-150.10USDUnknown period
2024-08-122024-08-290.10USDUnknown period
2024-05-202024-06-070.10USDUnknown period
2024-03-042024-03-210.10USDUnknown period
2023-10-302023-11-170.10USDUnknown period
2023-08-072023-08-240.10USDUnknown period
2023-05-152023-06-020.10USDUnknown period
2023-03-062023-03-230.10USDUnknown period
2022-10-312022-11-180.10USDUnknown period
2022-08-082022-08-250.10USDUnknown period
2022-05-162022-06-030.10USDUnknown period
2022-03-072022-03-240.10USDUnknown period
2021-10-282021-11-190.10USDUnknown period

Insider Trading in Alcoa 2026: The Signal Is negative

In 2026, insiders at Alcoa have made 20 transactions – split into 2 purchases and 18 sales. On a net basis, insiders took 6,144,290 $ out of the stock. Active insiders include Williams Steven W, Reed Matthew T, Oplinger William F and others. In the short term (last 3 months), the insider signal is negative.

Short-Term Signal (3 months): Negative

Insiders have exclusively sold shares over the last 3 months.

Over the last 3 months: 0 purchases and 1 sales. A net 215,372 $ out of the stock.

Long-Term Signal (all transactions): Mostly negative

Insiders have sold considerably more than they have bought. At large companies this can be due to planned sales (10b5-1 plans) and is not necessarily a negative signal.

Across the last 20 transactions: 2 purchases and 18 sales. A net 6,144,290 $ out of the stock.

Latest purchase: Williams Steven W bought 1,022 shares at 31 $ each on 2025-07-03. The stock has since risen 53.1%.

Latest sale: Reed Matthew T sold 4,600 shares at 47 $ each on 2026-07-22.

Who is buying: Williams Steven W.

Who is selling: Reed Matthew T, Oplinger William F, Jones Tammi A, Beerman Molly S., Bacchi Renato and others.

Latest Insider Trades in Alcoa (2026)

The table shows the last 20 reported insider transactions in Alcoa. Green rows are purchases, red rows are sales. The data is based on official filings.

Transaction date Name Type Number of shares Price per share ($) Total amount ($)
2026-07-22 Reed Matthew T Sell 4,600 47 215,372
2026-02-23 Oplinger William F Sell 8,740 60 522,739
2026-02-23 Jones Tammi A Sell 3,884 60 232,302
2026-02-23 Beerman Molly S. Sell 6,990 60 418,072
2026-02-23 Bacchi Renato Sell 4,858 60 290,557
2026-01-29 Oplinger William F Sell 14,840 61 899,898
2026-01-29 Jones Tammi A Sell 2,819 61 170,944
2026-01-29 Henry Renee Sell 366 61 22,194
2026-01-29 Hastings Andrew Sell 1,736 61 105,271
2026-01-29 Beerman Molly S. Sell 3,940 61 238,922

Who is buying and selling Alcoa shares in 2026?

The following insiders have bought shares in Alcoa: Williams Steven W. In total, 108,059 $ was bought across 2 transactions. The following insiders have sold shares: Reed Matthew T, Oplinger William F, Jones Tammi A, Beerman Molly S., Bacchi Renato and others. In total, 6,252,348 $ was sold across 18 transactions. Insider trades are legal transactions in which executives and board members buy or sell shares of their own company. These transactions are reported to the SEC and are publicly available.

Alcoa Short Selling 2026: 3.4% Sold Short

Moderate short interest: 3.4% of the free float
Short % of free float
3.4%
Assessment
Moderate short interest
Short squeeze risk
Low
Data source
SEC
Updated daily
The stock has a moderate share of short selling. Between 2-5% of the freely traded shares are sold short, which is within the normal range for most stocks.

Data is updated daily based on official filings with the SEC.
Short Interest Scale
0% 2% 5% 10% 20%+
Low Moderate High Very High Extreme
3.4%

When Does Alcoa Report Earnings – Next Date: 10/15/2026

The next earnings report from Alcoa is scheduled for October 15, 2026, after the market closes. This report covers the third quarter (Q3), which ended on September 30, 2026.



Technical Analysis of Alcoa 2026 – Signal: Strong Sell

Overall Technical Signal: Strong Sell

Based on trend analysis (SMA50/SMA200) and MACD trend (positive/negative on a daily + weekly basis). Updated August 6, 2026.

Technical analysis of Alcoa (AA.US) – RSI 47, MACD negative (bearish), daily candlestick chart August 2026
Alcoa technical analysis – candlestick chart with RSI and MACD. Updated Aug 6, 2026.

Trend Analysis of Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa Corporation is in a short-term uptrend. The price of $47.69 is 3.8% above the 20-day average ($45.95). Medium term, the picture is negative: the price is 15.8% below the 50-day average ($56.63). Long term, the stock is 15.0% below the 200-day average ($56.13), which signals a long-term downtrend.

Golden Cross: The 50-day average (56.63) is above the 200-day average (56.13), which is a classic bullish signal for Alcoa Corporation.

Is Alcoa Corporation overbought or oversold?

Alcoa Corporation has an RSI of 47.4, right in the middle of the neutral zone. There is no clear buying or selling pressure.

MACD Analysis for Alcoa Corporation

Daily MACD: MACD is negative (-2.439), which means the short-term trend is bearish (the 12-day EMA is below the 26-day EMA). MACD is above the signal line (-3.388) by 0.949, which suggests the negative momentum is fading – a potential trend reversal could be ahead.

Weekly MACD: MACD5 is negative (-2.074), which indicates a broader bearish long-term trend. MACD5 is below the signal line (1.743) by 3.817, which confirms continued negative long-term momentum.

Overall MACD assessment: Both the daily and weekly trend are bearish (MACD negative). However, momentum shows signs of improving on a daily basis – a potential trend reversal could be ahead, but it is not confirmed yet.

Risk Profile for Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa Corporation has an annual standard deviation of 55.6%, which classifies the stock as high risk. Sizeable price swings are normal, and the stock requires a higher risk tolerance.

Overall Technical Conclusion for Alcoa Corporation

Trend: Negative. The price trades below SMA50 and SMA200.

MACD trend (zero line): Daily bearish (-2.439). Weekly bearish (-2.074).

MACD momentum (signal): Daily rising. Weekly falling.

RSI: 47.4 – neutral.

Technical signal: Strong Sell

The price is in a downtrend (below SMA50/SMA200) and MACD is negative on both a daily and weekly basis. Avoid buying and consider closing existing positions.

Frequently Asked Questions About Alcoa stock in 2026

Should you buy Alcoa stock now?
No, the technical signal for Alcoa is currently SELL. Alcoa trades at $48.10 as of 8/6/2026. The overall technical signal is: Strong Sell. The technical analysis shows the following: MACD is negative (bearish trend) at -2.439 with rising momentum (signal: -3.388); RSI is at 47.4 (neutral zone); the stock is in a short-term uptrend (price above the 20-day average); the analyst price target of $62.98 points to 30.9% upside. The stock is in a broader downtrend (below SMA50/SMA200). Buying in a downtrend is generally not recommended. This is a technical observation based on current data, not investment advice.
What is the price target for Alcoa stock?
The average analyst price target for Alcoa is $62.98. The current price is $48.10, which gives an upside of 30.9%. Based on this, the stock is considered undervalued. The fair value range (±10% of the price target) is between $56.68 and $69.28.
Is Alcoa a dividend stock?
Yes, Alcoa is a dividend stock with a dividend yield of 0.89%. The latest dividend was $0.10 per share. The latest ex-dividend date (traded without the dividend) was 5/19/2026. The payout ratio is 8.4%, which is considered sustainable. The next dividend payment is scheduled for 8/27/2026.
When does Alcoa pay a dividend in 2026?
Alcoa pays its next dividend on 8/27/2026. The latest dividend was $0.10 per share with an ex-dividend date of 5/19/2026. The dividend yield is 0.89%. The payout ratio of 8.4% points to a sustainable dividend with room to grow.
What is the risk of Alcoa stock?
Alcoa is rated as a stock with high risk. the annual standard deviation is 55.6%, which classifies the stock as high risk.
Is Alcoa overvalued?
No, Alcoa is considered undervalued based on the analyst price target (30.9% upside). Alcoa has the following valuation ratios: a P/E ratio of 9.7 (lowly valued), a P/S ratio of 0.9, a P/B ratio of 1.6. The analyst price target suggests that the stock is undervalued by 30.9%.
Is Alcoa overbought?
No, Alcoa is not overbought. RSI is at 47.4 (neutral zone). The technical indicators show: RSI is at 47.4 (neutral zone between 30-70), which signals neither overbought nor oversold. In addition, the price is 4.7% above the 20-day average (short-term uptrend). In addition, MACD is negative, but momentum is rising (possible trend reversal).
When is the next Alcoa earnings report?
Alcoa reports its next earnings on October 15, 2026. The stock currently trades at $48.10. With a P/E ratio of 9.7, the market will be watching closely whether earnings meet expectations.
Is Alcoa shorted?
Yes, Alcoa is shorted with 3.4% of the free float sold short. This is a moderate level of short selling, within the normal range for most stocks. Data is updated daily based on official filings with the SEC.
Are insiders buying Alcoa stock?
No, insiders are not buying Alcoa shares – they are net sellers. Over the last 3 months, insiders have made 0 purchases and 1 sales. On a net basis, 215,372 $ worth of shares were sold. Across the last 20 reported transactions, the split is 2 purchases and 18 sales, with a net 6,144,290 $ sold. Active sellers include Reed Matthew T, Oplinger William F, Jones Tammi A and others. Insider selling can have several explanations (e.g. planned 10b5-1 sales, portfolio diversification or taxes), but sustained selling by several insiders is worth watching closely.
Is Alcoa a good stock?
Based on our total score, Alcoa is rated as a good stock with a total score of 62 out of 100. The stock scores above average on value, quality and momentum – it is among the top 38% in our database. The score is made up of Value: 92/100, Quality: 78/100, Momentum: 15/100. In addition: analysts see 30.9% upside to the price target; a dividend of 0.89%; technical signal: Strong Sell. Whether Alcoa is a good investment depends on your time horizon, risk profile and portfolio. This is a data-driven observation, not investment advice.
What is the outlook for Alcoa stock?
The outlook for Alcoa based on current data: the average analyst price target is $62.98 (+30.9%); the stock is in a downtrend (below SMA50 and SMA200); the next earnings report is due on 10/15/2026, which can move the price; the P/E ratio is 9.7 (low – a possible value stock). Keep in mind that stock prices are affected by many factors, including earnings reports, the economy and market sentiment. Past returns are no guarantee of future returns.
Why is Alcoa stock rising?
Alcoa is rising right now. The technical indicators show: the price is 4.7% above the 20-day average; insiders have mostly been selling the stock recently. For the latest context, see our technical analysis, insider section and news overview above.
How high can Alcoa go?
The average analyst price target for Alcoa is $62.98, which corresponds to a potential gain of 30.9% from the current price of $48.10. Keep in mind that price targets are estimates, not guarantees. Actual price moves depend on earnings, market conditions and unexpected events.
How low can Alcoa fall?
We lack enough history to give a specific floor for Alcoa. Remember: past price swings are no guarantee for the future — a stock can fall further than the last 52 weeks suggest, especially on profit warnings, sector crises or a market crash. Use stop-loss orders and spread your portfolio to limit losses in single stocks.
What does Alcoa do?
Alcoa Corporation laver basalt set alt inden for aluminium. De tjener penge på at udvinde bauxit, som de så forarbejder til aluminiumoxid – det, man kalder alumina. Den sidste del af forretningen er at smelte og støbe aluminium, som de sælger som primær aluminium og legeringsi... The company belongs to the Materialer sector, more specifically the Aluminium industry, is headquartered in USA, and is traded on the USA Stocks. See the key figures, earnings history and price development above to evaluate Alcoa as an investment.
Did Alcoa raise or lower its guidance?
Over the last 60 days we have not registered a guidance raise or cut from Alcoa. The company can still adjust its guidance at quarterly reports or between reports — see the earnings history and the news overview above.
Is Alcoa making money or losing money?
Yes, Alcoa is making money, not losing it. The company has a profit margin (the share of revenue left over as profit) of 9.4% — which is moderate. The operating margin (profit before interest and taxes) is 18.4%. At a P/E ratio of 9.7, you currently pay 9.7 dollars for every dollar of the company's annual earnings. A consistently profitable company is usually more resilient than growth stocks that are not yet making money.
Can Alcoa go bankrupt?
The bankruptcy risk of Alcoa is rated as moderate. Altman Z2 (a model for assessing financial distress) is 2.25 — that places the company in the middle zone. The Piotroski score (financial health 0-9, higher is better) is 8 — which is strong. Debt relative to equity is 173% (high). Remember: models like Altman Z2 are statistical — unexpected shocks (fraud, a sector collapse, lawsuits) can always happen. Spread your portfolio.
Does Alcoa have a lot of debt?
Yes, Alcoa has elevated debt relative to equity. The debt-to-equity ratio (D/E — interest-bearing debt to equity) is 173%. For the materialer sector, anything above 150% counts as elevated — that raises the financial risk, especially if interest rates rise or earnings fall. Note: D/E levels are highly sector-specific — a bank at 300% debt is normal, a tech stock at 300% is extremely leveraged. Always compare with similar companies in the same sector. Can Alcoa service its debt? Can service its debt without problems — the interest coverage ratio (how many times earnings can cover interest payments) is 14.4x, and net debt equals 0.4 years of earnings (EBITDA).